Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Oregon Results

Barack Obama 53
Hillary Clinton 39

Our poll showed the war- at 41%- out polling the economy- at 34%- as the biggest issue for Democrats in Oregon. The last state where we saw the war poll remotely that high was in Wisconsin, and that was another state with a small minority population that Barack Obama nonetheless won big. It looks like we're headed for a repeat performance in Oregon.

Obama is winning pretty much across the board. He dominates among male voters (60-31) while also maintaining a small edge with female voters (48-45). He is leading with every racial group, and also leads across three of four age groups. The only demographic Clinton has the advantage with is senior citizens, among whom she leads 50-41, a margin too small for her to have much of a chance of knocking off Obama.

PPP will have a final Oregon poll next Monday.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

Quick question Tom. Did your Oregon poll question people as to whether they had already voted and, if so, how did they split between Clinton and Obama?

I note that Survey USA also show the race for Obama (54-43) but interestingly amongst those who had already voted which was some 40% of the sample, Obama only led 49-48. I think he wins either way but if Survey USA are right, the margin will be a lot closer than 15 points.

Tom Jensen said...

We did not ask whether people had already voted. Probably should have though.

Anonymous said...

Love the honesty! The Survey USA figure just stuck out a little bit as generally the pattern has been that early voters break for Obama and late voters go for Clinton.

I'm not sure that it all matters at this stage. This contest is done and what will then be fascinating to see will be the extent to which Hillary's support transfers to Obama in polling against McCain. Even if he gets just under a couple of points, the figures will look pretty good and what has for months been an intense media focus on the Democrats may soon switch to the GOP.

Just my tuppence worth

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