Monday, March 3, 2008

Texas Poll Results

Hillary Clinton 50
Barack Obama 44

The Hispanic vote saved Hillary Clinton in California, and now it looks like it might do the same in Texas. She is getting almost as much of the Hispanic vote as Obama is of the black vote and that's propelled her to the lead in the state.

Obama has worked hard to court Hispanic voters in the state, but Clinton still leads 67-30 among them. Clinton has also taken a strong (58-37) lead among white voters after our poll last week showed Obama with the edge there.

Obama particularly has a white male problem. PPP's poll last week showed Obama leading 58-37 with that group. Clinton has flipped that around to a 54-41 advantage.

Like in Ohio, Obama is not seeing the same success with young voters in Texas that he has had in a lot of early primary states. He leads just 50-47 with voters aged 18-29 and 49-43 with folks 30-45.

John McCain 50
Mike Huckabee 38
Ron Paul 6

Huckabee has reduced McCain's lead 4 points from a poll last week but McCain should still win easily.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Hillary picked up 34 points among white males in one week? Have you ever seen such a swing? What could explain that?

Tom Jensen said...

Keep in mind the number of white males within a Texas sample of likely Democratic voters is not large, so the margin of error on the figure both last week and this week is significant.

But I think Hillary did a good job this week of creating doubt in voters' minds about Barack Obama's abilities to oversee national security. And if there's a demographic within the Democratic party where that's going to be particularly effective it's white males in Texas.

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