Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Republican Tracking Poll: Governor

Pat McCrory 34
Fred Smith 25
Bill Graham 6
Bob Orr 5
Elbie Powers 0

Pat McCrory is looking more and more likely by the week to win the Republican nomination without a runoff.

The most interesting thing in this poll is that McCrory leads Smith 38-28 with voters who said their top issue was immigration. McCrory's opponents have been hammering him on the issue over the last week, but they've been doing it in debates and earned media. The reality is that few voters are paying attention to either of those things. If the rest of the field really wants to draw any blood on McCrory they're going to have to make an investment in paid media to be effective.

McCrory also has a slight 34-31 lead over Smith with voters whose main concern is moral and family values. Again, Smith has no chance if he can't convince voters that he's the true social conservative in the race, and for now he is not doing that.

52% of voters still say they could change their minds between now and the election. But they're not likely to do so without a change in tactics from McCrory's opponents.

Full results here.

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