Thursday, April 24, 2008

Fun with crosstabs pt.2

Last week I posted that we produce way more crosstabs than we actually release and some of them are interesting if not particularly important. Here's another round based on this week's poll:

-As usual Bev Perdue does better with Obama supporters (47-35) than Clinton supporters. (45-39). The national media has swooped on down here and wanted to say that Perdue is akin to Hillary, but the reality is that their electoral coalitions are quite different. If Perdue did as well with white women as Hillary does the Governor's race would be over. At the same time Clinton would kill to have Perdue's support with black voters.

-I pointed this trend out last week but it continues to be true- Clinton supporters seem to be much more tuned in to the rest of the ballot than Obama supporters. In the Senate race 49% of Obama supporters are undecided while just 38% of Clinton supporters are. In some of the other races the differences are even more vast- 70% of Obama supporters for Insurance Commissioner to 52% of Clinton supporters for instance. This phenomenon is probably a result of Obama bringing new people into politics who might not follow or be that interested in the other races.

-83% of Hillary Clinton's supporters are white, while 52% of those going for Obama are black.

-Although Jim Neal is running a 'no politics as usual' campaign and has endorsed Barack Obama, he is actually the only one of the Senate candidates whose supporters are going for Clinton. Obama has a 53-39 lead with folks voting for Kay Hagan.

-There are some pretty strong correlations between certain candidates' support. For instance among Janet Cowell's supporters, 60% support Kay Hagan, 51% support Beth Wood, 64% support June Atkinson, and 48% support Robin Anderson or Mary Fant Donnan. That's a pretty strong indicator that some folks are voting a female ticket, particularly in the down ballot races.

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