Friday, April 18, 2008

Tracking Poll Preview

Depending on how crazy things get with our final Pennsylvania poll on Monday I might wait to release the North Carolina poll on Tuesday and Wednesday. Time will tell.

Either way this is what I'm interested in:

-Fred Smith has finally started attacking Pat McCrory, but on radio instead of tv. We're going to try to figure out the extent to which voters are seeing and hearing McCrory and Smith's ads, and whether they're tightening the race at all. My guess is that radio isn't going to get the job done but that's what the poll is for.

-We'll see if television advertising is having much of an effect on these down ballot races. For instance, David Young has been running ads in the Treasurer's race. Can folks in these lower interest races buy enough for it to make a difference?

-I imagine that with another week of tv under her belt Kay Hagan has further expanded her lead over Jim Neal. You have to give the Neal campaign credit though- I've seen numerous media reports this week across the state that the race is tied even though only one poll, conducted before tv started, is saying that. They're doing a good job of making it seem like the SurveyUSA one is the only poll out there.

-We're in week two now of the Bev Perdue 'positive campaign.' She got a little momentum off of that last week but can she hold it in the wake of Richard Moore's new ad this week criticizing her record as a business owner? We'll find out.

1 comment:

Robert P said...

This poll from April 7th also showed Neal/Hagan tied.

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