Monday, April 21, 2008

Final Pennsylvania Poll

Barack Obama 49
Hillary Clinton 46

For the fourth week in a row we are showing the margin between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Pennsylvania to be at three points or less.

With such a close race the final result tomorrow should hinge on turnout. If there is disproportionately high turnout in the Philadelphia metro area, where Obama has a 58-32 lead, he could pull out a victory. Clinton is dominating throughout pretty much the rest of the state.

Regardless of whether Clinton or Obama finally wins this primary, it is almost certain the margin will be so small as to have minimal effect on the delegate count.

The key to Obama's small lead is that he is doing better with his core constituencies in the state than Clinton is doing with hers. He leads 55-34 with men, 81-12 with African Americans, and has around a double digit lead with voters under 45.

Clinton, on the other hand, leads by just nine points with women and six with voters over 65. She'll need to do better with those groups than this poll is showing to pull out the win tomorrow.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...

The small clinton lead with the 65+ demographic does not look right. Can you throw some more light on this?. I am not sure if his peformance with the older voters in the Phily, pisstburg metro is the reason for that.

Anonymous said...

The latest Gallup Tracking poll showing Clinton taking first national lead over Obama in a month, following the Wright-Ayers-Bitter issues, may be the real trend showing what will hapepen with the 9% undecideds in PA. If that occurs Clinton could win by over 10%.

Bob Weiner

T. said...

Sorry Anonymous. Obama reclaimed his lead by 2 points in the Gallup.

Not that these numbers matter but let's keep up shall we before tossing disinformation.

Oh, and yes, obama 08 ;)

Anonymous said...

I hope your numbers are correct. Obama 08.

I believe the key will be turnout.

Anonymous said...

Actually as per the recent Gallup poll, Obama leads by 7 percent points.

Anonymous said...

Actually as per the recent Gallup poll, Obama leads by 7 percent points.


Anonymous said...

I don't believe this poll at all. I'm totally all for Obama in this election but this poll is way out of sync with EVERY other poll out there. Most have Clinton increasing her lead in PA to about 6-7 points and even Obama said today that he's not predicting victory. I will like to see what areas the sampling came from, i.e. were they taken from mostly Philadelpia where Barack is stronger?

Anonymous said...

Just a clarification - 7 percent point lead is in national poll and not PA primary.

And yes, you are correct, in PA, Obama is definitely not leading as per the polls. We all including Obama, know that in PA he may not be able to win but hopefully loses only by 5 percent points or less.


Anonymous said...

You guys must be high. Not to mention extremely biased. Not one other major poll agrees with your PA count, not to mention your extremely lopsided national Democratic polls.

Anonymous said...

I'm so confused, this is the only poll that points to a lead, how does this polling work, and what are the polling demographics

Anonymous said...

You Know what! I think this Poll is accurate. I konw that all other polls show Hillary with a narrow lead but that is not what i saw in the campaign trail. What I saw in the Obama rally's and town hall meetings and other gatherings is more like this polls says.
Anyway I could be wrong..but will will know tomorrow.

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