Final Pennsylvania Poll

Barack Obama 49
Hillary Clinton 46

For the fourth week in a row we are showing the margin between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Pennsylvania to be at three points or less.

With such a close race the final result tomorrow should hinge on turnout. If there is disproportionately high turnout in the Philadelphia metro area, where Obama has a 58-32 lead, he could pull out a victory. Clinton is dominating throughout pretty much the rest of the state.

Regardless of whether Clinton or Obama finally wins this primary, it is almost certain the margin will be so small as to have minimal effect on the delegate count.

The key to Obama's small lead is that he is doing better with his core constituencies in the state than Clinton is doing with hers. He leads 55-34 with men, 81-12 with African Americans, and has around a double digit lead with voters under 45.

Clinton, on the other hand, leads by just nine points with women and six with voters over 65. She'll need to do better with those groups than this poll is showing to pull out the win tomorrow.

Full results here.