Thursday, April 17, 2008

Perdue, Hagan, and White Women

If Bev Perdue doesn't win the Democratic primary for Governor, a weak performance with white women will be the reason.

Perdue leads Richard Moore just 38-33 with that demographic in our latest poll.

It seems like with Perdue being the first serious female candidate for Governor that she would do extremely well with other white women. But our polls have consistently shown that she doesn't put up the kind of huge margin with them that you might expect.

Perdue's base is actually more similar to Barack Obama's than Hillary Clinton's. More of her supporters are black- 48%- than white- 45%- in our latest poll.

Kay Hagan's success, on the other hand, has a lot to do with white women. She leads Jim Neal 31-7 with them. Hillary Clinton has a large lead over Obama in the state with that group as well.

I don't know why Perdue isn't as popular with white women as Hagan and Clinton are. But if the race tightens again her comparative lack of popularity with them could end up making the difference.

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