Thursday, April 10, 2008

SurveyUSA Crosstabs

I know I promised this yesterday, but better late than never, right?

The most interesting thing to me about the numbers on the Democratic gubernatorial race was Richard Moore taking the (statistically insignificant) lead among voters who described themselves as liberals.

When I wrote this post last month Moore was winning with conservatives and getting clobbered by Bev Perdue among liberals and moderates, probably because of his earlier ads that some described as Republican-lite railing against things likes commissions and studies that nobody cared about.

Shortly after SUSA released its poll last month Moore came out with his new ads focusing on populist issues of greater concern to the Democratic base like the minimum wage, affordable college tuition, and property tax relief for those who need it. The fact that he's leading with liberals now is just more confirmation that the revamp of his campaign has been effective.

On the Republican side two things caught my attention. The first was that Pat McCrory has a 29-21 lead over Fred Smith in the region that encompasses the Triad and the Triangle. That's just more confirmation that his ad campaign has made him into a true statewide candidate. His leads earlier in the campaign were largely coasting off of racking up huge majorities in Charlotte but now it's moved beyond that.

The other is that McCrory leads Smith 32-23 among voters who described themselves as conservatives. Not to beat a dead horse, but there's no way Fred Smith wins the nomination without garnering the support of those who think of themselves as conservatives, and if he wants to win those folks he's going to need to tell them that McCrory isn't one.

In the Democratic Senate race the same disconnect between normal voters and politically active people that has shown itself in previous polls is still there. Kay Hagan leads among liberals and moderates, while Jim Neal leads among conservatives. The way the campaign is actually playing out is sort of the opposite of that, but the fact that the numbers don't square with how the highly involved political folks are lining up is just another indication of how little the voters really know about these candidates.

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