Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Pennsylvania Poll Results

Barack Obama 45
Hillary Clinton 42

It seems more clear with each passing day that Hillary Clinton's efforts to hurt Barack Obama for his 'bitter' remarks are not working. Earlier this week PPP showed Obama maintaining a 20 point lead in North Carolina, and now for the third week in a row we show the race in Pennsylvania as a statistical tie.

Obama's gain since PPP's poll last week is not attributable to any major shifts of support from any particular demographic. He simply cut Clinton's lead with whites and women, and increases his advantage with men and black voters.

High turnout in the metro Philadelphia area seems likely to be the key to Obama's success or failure. Right now he leads 53-33 in that region, with Clinton showing a strong advantage in most of the rest of the state.

This race could go either way depending on how the campaign unfolds over the last week. If Obama does win, it may be that his superior ground game ends up making the difference to put him over the top in the closing days.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

A question: How is that your poll is not backed up by any other pollster? I hope you'll quit polling and leave it to those who are qualified to do so when Clinton wins the state double digits next week.

Anonymous said...

love the site, love the analysis. And I'd like to think I'd say that when you have bad news for my candidate.

Stephen C. Rose said...

The first commentator ignores the fact that you guys have been the most accurate since SC where you call it closer than the rest. The margin you cite here is like your Texas result, and therefore encourages one to believe Obama may make up the difference or come very close. As to why you polls are more accurate, I suspect if he or she takes the trouble to compate all the data, an answer may emerge.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Stephen Rose,

First of all, PA has a different fabric than TX. Second, Survey USA has the best record in the primaries. This poll is an outlier to say the least.

There is one good thing about it though. It keeps the expectations for Obama high, so that when Hillary crushes him next week, it will be an unspinnable defeat for Mr. Obama.

John said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
John said...

Mr. Anonymous,
Survey USA has the best record in the primaries. Public Policy Polling has the second-best record in the primaries. This is out of 18 national pollsters.

If this makes them "unqualified" to conduct polling, I cannot imagine what the 88% below PPP in accuracy must be doing.

Anonymous said...

Public Policy Polling was very inaccurate about the Florida Republican Presidential Primary. Their last poll before the primary had Mitt Romney in the lead over John McCain by 35% to 28 %. McCain won the Florida primary with roughly 35% and Romney was about 5 percentage points behind McCain. With Hillary Clinton having the endorsements from the governor of Pennsylvania along with the endorsements from the mayors of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, I think PPP's latest Pennsylvania poll (along with its previous one) is an outlier. I would be surprised if Clinton didn't win the state's Democratic primary.

Anonymous said...

How many models did you have to go through this time before you got the result you wanted?

jr1886 said...

No poll is perfect Mr. anonymous. SurveyUSA which has the best record was way off in Missouri, SC, Alabama and in a few other states. So, I am confused just like you about the flurry of polls for PA with these divergent results. I think Obama is probably behind by about 4-6%pts but who knows?I don't think you should come here just because you don't like the result of this poll and try to trash them with no serious argument. Talk about where you think they might go wrong. I think Obama's support among 65+ is too high in this poll but we shall know who was right very soon.

Anonymous said...

I am not going to say this poll is wrong, because look at NH. Every poll had Obama winning and Clinton won there. Don't be so quick to put down a poll just because you don't like what it has to say. Wait until after PA votes next week and then say something. Also a poll is just a snapshot in time, all we know Obama could be ahead right now.

Anonymous said...

I believe your polling numbers are correct... I do expect Obama to win Pennsylvannia tomorrow.. The enormous crowds of people he is able to gather speak for themselves. Obama understands struggling middle & poor class struggles: their understandable bitterness and anger for a system that instead of helping them buries them before special, corporate interests

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