Monday, February 18, 2008

Coming this week...

We'll have our monthly poll looking at the potential general election match ups for Governor, President, and Senate.

I'll be most interested in the Presidential matches. Last month Hillary Clinton did considerably better than Barack Obama in potential matches against John McCain and Mike Huckabee, the remaining Republicans in the race. McCain led Clinton 49-42, while holding a 52-38 margin on Obama. Clinton led Huckabee 46-44, but Obama trailed him 49-41.

The crux of the problem for Obama in those polls was the Democratic vote. Obama got more support from Republicans than Clinton, but while Clinton got the support of 72-75% of respondents who identified themselves as Democrats Obama got just 59-66%.

I think Obama has made major strides in the hearts and minds of Democratic voters across the country since last month, so it'll be interesting to see if he's doing better this time around.

In the gubernatorial races, it will be interesting to see if the gains Bev Perdue has been making in primary polling extend to the general election match ups, where Richard Moore was the stronger candidate last month. I'll also be watching to see if any Republican other than Pat McCrory is gaining ground on the Democratic front runners- I doubt it.

On the Senate race the big question is whether Kay Hagan and/or Jim Neal will be able to hold Elizabeth Dole below 50% this month.

If all goes well we'll have the President and Senate numbers Tuesday and the Governor numbers Wednesday.

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