Thursday, February 21, 2008

Frustrating Charlotte Democrats

Pat McCrory has been putting up impressive performances in the Charlotte region in our general election tracking polls. He has 53% against Richard Moore and 59% against Bev Perdue.

I realized that for McCrory to be performing that well in the region, he had to be getting a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats in the area. So I ran the numbers.

Keep in mind this is a very small sample- just 42 of those polled were self identified Democrats in the greater Charlotte region. But the result is still stunning. Moore and Perdue both lead McCrory just 43-40 with 17% undecided among voters of their own party in that area.

A lot of Democratic observers were irritated around the time McCrory was making his announcement at comments from Democratic Charlotte City Council members to the effect that McCrory as Governor would be a good thing for Charlotte. Clearly their attitudes are shared by a good number of their constituents as well.

Loyalty to Charlotte appears to be greater than loyalty to the Democratic party for these voters. If McCrory wins the GOP nomination I would strongly encourage Moore or Perdue to spend some money, even early in the general election contest, telling Democrats particularly in Mecklenburg County just how conservative McCrory is on many issues. Don't let them get solidly committed to him.

Serving as Governor brings a whole different set of issues to the table from being Mayor, and folks who have liked him as the city's chief executive might be less enamored of his views on some key statewide issues.

Keep in mind also that while Perdue and Moore have been on tv in most of the state, they are not in Charlotte. So these numbers among Democrats in the region should shift some when they start running ads in that area.

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