Monday, February 4, 2008

New York Poll: Clinton, McCain expand leads

Hillary Clinton 51
Barack Obama 32

Clinton has expanded her lead in the state from 12 points last week to 19 now.

She appears to have received almost all of the Edwards vote since he dropped out of the race. Previously she led Obama 44-29 among white respondents with Edwards receiving 14%, and now her margin over Obama has improved to 55-30 after he dropped out.

One thing stunting Obama's momentum in New York is that he gets a much smaller percentage of the black vote there than he does in other states. He leads Clinton just 53-30 among New York African Americans, whereas he receives over 70% of the black vote in many states.

John McCain 49
Mitt Romney 24
Mike Huckabee 9
Ron Paul 5

McCain appears likely to win an easy victory in New York. One thing that helps him in the state is that GOP voters are most concerned with the bread and butter issues of the war and the economy. McCain tends to do much better on those issues than things like moral and family values, where Mike Huckabee does well, and immigration, where Mitt Romney does well. The latter issues are much less important to Republicans in New York than other places, and McCain leads 56-19 among folks most concerned about the war and 56-18 with people who list the economy as their top issue.

Full results here.

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