Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Survey USA: Senate

Kay Hagan 24
Jim Neal 23
Howard Staley 8
John Ross Hendrix 4
Duskin Lassiter 3

This is certainly the best polling news Jim Neal has received yet over the course of the race. Still, Survey USA's numbers have been all over the place on this one. When they polled it in November, Hagan led 39-31, so 70% of respondents supported one of the two main candidates. Last month Hagan led 37-29, so that number was down to 66%. Now only 47% of respondents support one of the two candidates? Elections rarely go from 70% supporting one of the front runners six months out to only 47% supporting one of them three months out and I don't think the real reason is a surge in support for Howard Staley. I explained last month why Survey USA's numbers sometimes come out different from ours and I think this is one case where our numbers are showing the more accurate picture.

These numbers also continue to show an anomaly when broken down by ideology. Neal is running as a fiery progressive while Hagan is running as, well, I'm not really sure what her message is. Despite that, self identified liberals support Hagan 29-16, while moderates support Neal 28-25 and conservatives support him 29-20. Those crosstabs don't make a ton of sense given the general thrust of the race.

The full results are here.

1 comment:

David said...

Jim Neal has launched a National House Party Program, featuring "Leap Friday" parties on February 29th. He'll join all the parties via conference call to answer questions from attendees. With this house party model, the campaign aims to bring a new openness to the race, in sharp contrast to traditional campaigns. The hope is also to raise grassroots dollars from NC supporters and from the LGBT community nationally.

For more information, contact dsalie at party2win dot com or go to

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