Tuesday, February 19, 2008

General Election Poll: President

John McCain 48
Hillary Clinton 43

John McCain 47
Barack Obama 42

Mike Huckabee 48
Hillary Clinton 44

Barack Obama 46
Mike Huckabee 45

These poll results are good news for Democrats on several levels. First, they represent significant improvement from a similar poll last month, especially for Barack Obama.

Last month Obama trailed McCain by 14 points. Now that's down to five. Huckabee led Obama by eight last month and now trails by one. That represents a nine point gain for Obama on both fronts.

Second, although they probably wouldn't say it publicly, most Democrats in the state would be pretty happy to only lose the Presidential race by five points. Double digit losses have become the rule rather than the exception of late. If the Democratic nominee loses by only a small margin Republican hopes to regain the legislature or the Governor's mansion are likely to be pretty futile, and it greatly increases Democratic hopes of winning back offices like the 8th District Congressional seat and the Labor, Agriculture, and Auditor positions.

Certainly Democrats in the state will do what they can to turn North Carolina to the blue column in the Presidential race. But I bet they could live with these results too.

Clinton and Obama both lead McCain by large margins among young people but trail with the rest of the age groups. A large turnout from new, young voters would likely be the key if the Democratic nominee is going to win the state.

Full results here.

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