Monday, February 11, 2008

How Clinton and Obama might affect North Carolina

PPP did polls in the Presidential primaries for our neighboring states of South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee.

Comparing the exit polls and our surveys, on average 7% more of the Democratic primary electorate in those states was black than usual, and the electorate was also 4% more female.

PPP always weights the results of its primary polls to reflect an approximately 58% female and 26% black North Carolina Democratic primary electorate but we will have to re-evaluate that as it becomes more clear whether we will join the Presidential circus.

Just for fun, here are what the results of last week's tracking poll would have been with a sample 62% female and 33% African American:

Barack Obama 44 Hillary Clinton 39 (was 42-40)
Bev Perdue 46 Richard Moore 30 (was 45-31)
Kay Hagan 22 Jim Neal 7 John Ross Hendrix 6 Duskin Lassiter 4 Howard Staley 1 (was 22-7-6-5-1)
Pat Smathers 11 Dan Besse 9 Walter Dalton 9 Hampton Dellinger 6 (was 11-10-9-6)
Janet Cowell 15 David Young 13 Michael Weisel 8 (was 14-13-8)
June Atkinson 35 Eddie Davis 15 (was 36-15)
Beth Wood 25 Fred Aikens 17 (was 25-18)

So although there are some small shifts, that particular electorate wouldn't make a huge difference in the results.

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