Monday, February 25, 2008

Ohio Results: Obama gaining on Clinton

Hillary Clinton 50
Barack Obama 46

Momentum is rapidly swinging Barack Obama's way in Ohio. Even just a couple weeks ago Clinton held a lead over 20 points in some polls.

Obama is benefiting from the decided nature of the Republican contest. That's increasing the number of Republicans and independents who plan to cast their ballots in the Democratic primary next week, and Obama leads those groups 80-13 and 64-33 respectively. Clinton actually has a 56-40 edge among self identified Democrats.

One anomaly in Ohio is that Clinton actually has a 50-48 lead among voters 18-29, bucking the trend of strong Obama performances with that demographic. The Ohio Poll released by the University of Cincinnati earlier today also showed the candidates statistically tied in that age group. Obama's strength is coming from a 55-40 lead with voters 30-45, while Clinton leads 65-31 with senior citizens.

The standard racial and gender disparities seen in many states also apply in Ohio. Clinton leads 56-38 with whites while Obama has a 76-24 lead with African Americans. Clinton has a 55-42 edge with women, but Obama holds a 51-45 advantage with men.

Time is on Obama's side now. If he continues to make these gains on Clinton in the state over the next week, he seems likely to emerge as the victor in Ohio.

John McCain 55
Mike Huckabee 30
Ron Paul 7

Not much to say here. If Huckabee thought he was going to hold off McCain by doing well in Ohio he was wrong.

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