Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Pennsylvania Results

Hillary Clinton 46
Barack Obama 43

Hillary Clinton has moved back into the lead in Pennsylvania after trailing by two points in our poll last week. Still, this result is further confirmation that it's likely to be a close race in the Keystone state.

Clinton's rebound in the last week has come almost entirely from improving her standing with her core demographics of women, whites, and senior citizens. Her lead with woman went from 10 points to 16, with white voters it went from 11 to 17, and with voters over 65 from 16 to 21.

It's hard to tell exactly why Clinton has rebounded during a relatively slow news week, but it may be that negative effects of the Bosnia story have started to wear off as the issue gets less attention.

Obama has large leads with men, African Americans, and younger voters.

The survey also found that 37% of likely primary voters in Pennsylvania are concerned that the protracted nature of the Democratic contest will hurt the eventual nominee's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. Obama leads Clinton 47-41 with those voters. Among the 52% of voters who are not worried about it Clinton has a 50-40 advantage.

PPP will have its next Pennsylvania poll a week from today.

Full results here.


jr1886 said...

I think your result is more in line with other polls I have seen in recent days. That doesn't mean your poll is corrected but it does reflect what Rasmussen and Quinnipiac poll found in the race. The Obama camp must be happy with this result and if I was running his campaign, I would undertake another bus tour in the final week of the contest. Clearly,the reading from this poll and, many others, is that his bus tour was very successful.

A few interesting points about your poll vs SurveyUSA poll. Your poll finds that black make up 17% of the electorate vs surveyUSA 14%. I happen to find your number confirming a point i made yesterday in your blog announcing that you will release this poll in the morning.

Also, SurveyUSA has Hillary leading Obama in the Southeast region of the state a result I found unlikely. Today, you confirm my original suspicion was corrected and that in fact Obama is leading in this region rich with black and latte drinkers

Anonymous said...

So this basically means that it is a tie in PA and whomever can mobilize their bases wins. I'm going to go with Obama because of the young voters are not usually polled because they have cell phones and I am going to say that he gets 90% of the AA vote.

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